What would happen if the GOP split?
Breaking up is hard to do, especially if you're a member of a major political party. But how else are we ever going to get a viable third party choice which represents true classical conservative ideals?
Look, everybody and their brother knows that third party candidates are pretty much in the race for show, no matter how qualified they are for the job. Most don't have a snowball's chance in hell of getting elected. Why is that? Well I imagine it's a combination of both party loyalty and fear. You've got a significant number of people out there who will vote a certain way because they're loyal to the party, irrespective of whether or not the party has their best interests at heart. There are also many who simply won't vote for a third party candidate for fear of "throwing their vote away." In addition to this, third party candidates are largely marginalized by the dynamic duo: Republicans and Democrats. Sure, they fight like cats and dogs the majority of the time, but watch 'em close ranks when it comes to outsiders. Can you blame them? They don't want to lose their lock on government. If a third, or even a fourth party came along which offered something better to voters, the current bureaucrats might have to change the way they do things. Competition that captures the heart and imagination of the country could potentially destroy the career politician's way of life, which pardon the analogy, is remarkably parasitic in nature.
That's one reason why we need more than two major parties in this country. Competition is probably the only thing which can help both the major parties clean up their act.
But if a third party is ever going to have shot at being a contender against the two major parties, there has to be a split in one of the major parties involving those already in power. Frankly, what I'd like to see is the true conservatives break ties with the Republican Party. The Republican Party was once known as The Gallant Old Party and then later on as The Grand Ol' Party. Perhaps with a little party mitosis, they could be grand again.
Chad Phillips
We’ll never have a viable third party on a national level. We the Sheeple are too entrenched in letting others think for us, and the party spinmasters are too good at their jobs.
All it would do is elect more Democrats.
So long as the country has a winner-take-all or first-past-the-post election system, third parties invariably hurt one party more than the other.
The operative example of this is Canada, where something like three people in five voted for left-of-center parties in the elections (the Liberals, the Greens, the National Democrats), but the government was formed by the less than two people out of five that voted for the conservatives.
Canada is a predominantly left-of-center country, much as the United States is a predominantly right-of-center country, so it is a very telling example of what would happen if what you suggested were to take place.
Thanks for your comment Scott. I think your point has merit. I can certainly see where that scenario could happen. However, I do think it assumes that the right of center ideologues wouldn’t support the party. I guess, my idealism leads me to believe that purification of the party would do two things: Number one, more right of center folks would be encouraged to vote (which means a larger voting bloc), and two, the bulk of those who were conservative anyway would be absorbed by the new party. Just a thought.
That’s possible, but it is probably an insufficient condition to win an election in a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system.
Having sixty percent of the people be conservative is useless if they are split into three parties and the remaining forty or so percent that are liberal remain united and vote as a block. In this the Canadian example (where the opposite is true) is supremely illustrative.
Unless there is some sort of proportional voting system, third parties invariably hurt one party more than the other. Just ask Republicans about Ross Perot or Democrats about Ralph Nader.